INTEGRATION STATUS: live event-contract data integration is pending provider approval. Until it ships, this pillar offers education, the free EV calculator and sample analyses. Features marked * below activate when the data feed goes live.
SEC. 01 — HOW THESE MARKETS WORK
What event contracts are
Binary contracts on a defined real-world outcome — a Fed decision, a CPI print, a GDP range — listed on CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi. Each contract settles at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
Price is a probability
A YES price of 62¢ is the market saying roughly 62% probability. That makes event markets the purest probability instrument in public markets — and the natural home for GiottoO's probability-based market intelligence.
Fees change the math
Exchange fees are large relative to the cent-denominated edge in these markets. A contract that looks positive-EV at the quoted price can be negative-EV after fees. GiottoO always shows fee-adjusted expected value.
Settlement risk is real
Contracts settle on a specific data source, revision rule and deadline. A print that later gets revised, a definition mismatch, or an exchange settlement dispute can turn a 'correct' forecast into a losing contract.
SEC. 02 — WHAT THE RESEARCH VIEW LOOKS LIKE
SAMPLE — ILLUSTRATIVE DATA. NOT LIVE CONTRACTS, NOT RECOMMENDATIONS.
The readout compares the market's implied probability against a model estimate, then subtracts fees. Most contracts, most of the time, show negative fee-adjusted EV — that finding is itself the research. Run your own numbers in the free event contract EV calculator.
SEC. 03 — WHAT EACH PLAN UNLOCKS
* Activates when live event-contract data integration completes (pending provider approval).
SEC. 04 — GET STARTED
Learn the math before the feed goes live.
The EV calculator and settlement education are free today. GiottoO Perspective ($29/mo) gets the live panels the day they ship.
SEC. 05 — RISK DISCLOSURE
Event contracts are binary: a losing contract loses 100% of the amount paid. Fees materially reduce expected value, settlement rules can differ from your intuition about the event, and liquidity can be thin outside major contracts. GiottoO does not place trades or route orders. Read the full event contracts risk disclosure before using this pillar.
DATA SOURCES
1 SOURCEEvent-contract data integration is intentionally not wired until provider-terms and legal review clear.
SOURCE DISCLOSURE: sample analyses on this page use illustrative numbers only. Live event-contract data integration is pending provider approval; when live, data will come from CFTC-regulated exchange feeds under license, and may be delayed. Model probabilities are estimates, not observed frequencies.
GiottoO provides educational market research, probability analysis, and risk tools based on public, licensed, or user-authorized data. GiottoO is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, commodity trading adviser, or financial adviser. Nothing on this platform is financial advice or a guarantee of performance. Trading and investing involve risk.