SHEET 45 — METHODOLOGY
Trust in a scoring engine has to be earned with transparency. This page publishes exactly how the 100-point Decision Score is built, how probabilities are estimated, what gets penalized, and — just as important — where the models are wrong.
Approximations, not certainties · calibration published on /performance
Educational research only. Not financial advice.
What's inside
Every weight published
The full 100-point breakdown of the Decision Score is on this page. No black box, no 'proprietary secret sauce' hand-waving.
Approximations labeled
Probabilities are model estimates built from expected move and a normal distribution — useful, standard and imperfect. We say so.
Calibration in public
How scores have actually resolved is published on the performance page, wins and losses alike.
The methodology
The 100-point Decision Score
Every setup is scored out of 100 using fixed, published weights: probability of profit 20%, expected value 20%, volatility edge 15%, liquidity 10%, risk/reward 10%, catalyst context 10%, technical structure 5%, macro regime 5%, historical backtest fit 3%, and portfolio correlation 2%. The weights are the same for every ticker and every user — no input, sponsor or partner can move them.
How probabilities are estimated
Probability of profit starts from the option chain's expected move, converts the distance to breakeven into sigma units, and maps that through a normal CDF. This is the standard practitioner approach, and it carries the standard caveat: markets are not normally distributed. Treat every probability as an approximation of the market's own pricing — never as a certainty.
The Monte Carlo engine
Expected value and P&L distributions come from a Monte Carlo simulation: 10,000 geometric Brownian motion price paths per structure, seeded so results are reproducible — the same trade scored twice returns the same numbers. GBM is a deliberate simplification; it does not model jumps, gaps or regime breaks, which is one reason the score also carries explicit catalyst and macro components.
What the engine penalizes
Three things reliably destroy retail options P&L, and the engine punishes all of them: illiquidity (wide spreads and thin open interest raise the real cost of every entry and exit), IV crush exposure (owning rich premium into an event that deflates it), and negative expected value (structures where the math loses even when the thesis is right). A charismatic chart cannot outscore a bad fill.
Reject-first philosophy
The engine is built to say no. Most setups it evaluates score below the tradable threshold, and that is the design working — not a bug to be tuned away. A tool that finds a reason to trade everything is a marketing engine, not a decision engine. The rejected pile is the product.
Data delays
Market data used for scoring may be delayed by up to 15 minutes depending on source and plan, and end-of-day analytics use closing snapshots. Fast markets can move away from a score between calculation and your fill. Always check live quotes at your broker before acting on anything.
Where the models are wrong
All of these models are wrong at the tails. Normal-distribution probabilities understate crash risk, GBM paths do not gap on headlines, and historical base rates assume the future resembles the past. GiottoO narrows your candidate list and quantifies the trade-offs — it does not eliminate uncertainty, and any tool claiming otherwise is lying to you.
Check our work
Score calibration — how trades in each score band actually resolved — is published on the performance page and updated as data accrues. Before trading anything, read the risk disclosure. If the calibration ever stops justifying the weights, the weights change and this page changes with them.
Questions this answers
The questions professional options traders actually ask — and where GiottoO answers them.
Probability
GiottoO Probability EnginePerformance
GiottoO Trade Grade — Transparent PerformanceGiottoO's scores, probabilities and expected values are model outputs for research and education. They are not investment advice, not predictions, and not a substitute for your own judgment.
Options involve substantial risk of loss. Read the full Risk Disclosure before trading.