SHEET 24 — DEFINED-RISK TRADING

Defined-risk trading: know your max loss before you enter.

A complete guide to the structures where the worst case is decided at entry — debit spreads, credit spreads, iron condors and butterflies — plus the position sizing rules that make them survivable.

EDUCATIONAL GUIDE · PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS · ALL EXAMPLES HYPOTHETICAL

Educational research only. Not financial advice.

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What's inside

Structures with a floor

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Debit spreads, credit spreads, iron condors and butterflies — every structure covered here has a maximum loss fixed by construction at entry.

Sizing arithmetic

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Risk-per-trade caps of 1–3%, contract counts computed backwards from max loss, and why a trade that exceeds the cap gets skipped, not shrunk.

Worked max-loss math

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Real strike-by-strike examples with the max loss computed and displayed before the max profit — the order professionals evaluate every trade in.

The guide

Max loss is a decision, not a discovery

The single structural difference between professional and retail options trading is when maximum loss gets determined. In a defined-risk structure, the worst-case outcome is fixed by the position itself at entry — no gap, no halt, no overnight headline can make it larger. In an undefined-risk position (naked shorts, unhedged stock), max loss is discovered later, usually at the worst possible moment.

Deciding max loss before entry changes everything downstream: position sizing becomes arithmetic instead of hope, drawdowns become survivable by construction, and no single trade can end the account. It also removes the most dangerous decision in trading — what to do when a position is moving against you fast — because the floor was set before emotion entered the room.

Every structure on this page shares that property: the maximum loss is a known dollar figure, printed on the trade ticket, before any capital is committed.

Debit spreads: directional exposure with a hard floor

A debit spread buys one option and sells another of the same type, same expiration, further from the money. The long leg provides the directional exposure; the short leg subsidizes its cost and caps the upside. The maximum loss is simply the net debit paid — that money is the entire commitment.

A bull call spread (buy the 100 call, sell the 105 call) profits if the stock rises; a bear put spread does the same for a decline. Compared to a naked long option, the spread reduces the breakeven, cuts the cost of theta decay, and dampens vega — you are less exposed to being right on direction but wrong on volatility.

Bull call spread: buy 100C @ 3.20, sell 105C @ 1.40 → net debit 1.80 Max loss = $180/contract (the debit) · max profit = (5.00 − 1.80) × 100 = $320 · breakeven = 101.80

Credit spreads: selling probability, not prediction

A credit spread sells the option closer to the money and buys a further one as protection, collecting a net credit up front. The trade profits if the underlying stays away from the short strike — you are paid for taking on a defined, bounded obligation, and time decay works for you rather than against you.

The math is fixed at entry: maximum profit is the credit received; maximum loss is the width of the strikes minus that credit, times 100. A put credit spread expresses “probably not below X by expiration”; a call credit spread expresses “probably not above Y.” Neither requires the stock to move — only to not move against the short strike, which is why credit spreads are the workhorse of probability-based trading.

Iron condors: paid on both sides of a range

An iron condor combines a put credit spread below the market and a call credit spread above it. You collect both credits, and the position profits if the underlying finishes between the two short strikes. Risk stays defined because each side is a spread — and since the underlying can only finish on one side, the two wings share a single margin requirement.

Condors are a bet on range and on elevated implied volatility mean-reverting, not on direction. They work best when IV is rich relative to what the underlying actually does, and worst when a quiet chart suddenly trends. The full doctrine — strike selection, IV conditions, adjustments — lives in the dedicated iron condor guide.

Butterflies: precision structures, small debits

A butterfly buys one option, sells two at a middle strike, and buys one further out (e.g., buy 95, sell 2× 100, buy 105). The cost is a small debit — which is also the maximum loss — and the maximum profit lands if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

Butterflies offer the best risk/reward ratios in the defined-risk family, sometimes 5:1 or better, in exchange for a narrow profit zone and payoff that mostly materializes close to expiration. They suit traders with a specific price target and patience; they punish traders who need to be paid early.

Position sizing: the risk-per-trade cap

Defined risk only protects the account if the defined amount is small relative to it. The standard professional convention is to cap risk per trade at 1–3% of account value: 1% conservative, 2% balanced, 3% aggressive. At 2% risk per trade, a run of five consecutive max losses — which will happen to every probability seller eventually — costs roughly 10% of the account, an entirely recoverable drawdown.

The sizing arithmetic runs backwards from max loss, never forwards from potential profit: account × risk cap ÷ max loss per contract = number of contracts, rounded down. If one contract already exceeds the cap, the correct size is zero — the trade is skipped, not shrunk by wishful thinking.

Worked example: a 5-wide put credit spread

The stock trades at 210. You sell the 200/195 put credit spread — short the 200 put, long the 195 put, same expiration — and collect $1.50. Before anything else, compute the number that matters most:

Width = 200 − 195 = 5.00 · credit received = 1.50 MAX LOSS = (5.00 − 1.50) × 100 = $350 per contract Max profit = 1.50 × 100 = $150 per contract Breakeven = 200 − 1.50 = 198.50 · risk/reward ≈ 2.3 : 1 Sizing @ 2% cap on a $25,000 account: $500 budget ÷ $350 = 1 contract

Note the order: the $350 max loss is evaluated first, against the account risk cap, before the $150 max profit is even considered. The trade risks $350 to make $150 — acceptable only if the probability of keeping the credit is high enough to make expected value positive. That probability question is exactly what the Decision Engine is built to answer.

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Questions this answers

The questions professional options traders actually ask — and where GiottoO answers them.

Risk

GiottoO Risk Lens
  • What is the max loss?
  • What is the expected shortfall?
  • What is the worst realistic scenario?
  • What happens if the stock gaps?
  • What happens if the event goes against me?
  • How should I size this trade?

Strategy Selection

GiottoO Decision Engine — Strategy Selector
  • Should I buy premium or sell premium?
  • Should I use a debit spread or credit spread?
  • Is an iron condor appropriate?
  • Is the expiration too short?
  • Are the strikes too aggressive?
  • Is this a better trade as a spread instead of a naked option?

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Educational content only. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.

All examples are hypothetical, use simplified pricing, and exclude commissions, fees and assignment costs. Maximum loss figures apply to positions held to expiration; early assignment and pin risk can alter outcomes.