contract inputs
Contracts settle at 100¢ if the event occurs, 0¢ if it does not. Your probability estimate is the number doing all the work — be honest with it.
results — estimates
POSITIVE EDGE (PER YOUR ESTIMATE)
assumptions
Buying YES at the quoted price; held to settlement; no exit before resolution; fee applied once per contract. EV = (your probability × 100¢) − price − fee. The market's implied probability ignores fees and any bid/ask spread; wide markets make realized results worse than this math.
Educational math only. Not financial advice. All results are estimates.
Want this run across every listed macro contract?
GiottoO Perspective ($29/mo) will include model-probability vs market-price panels for Fed, CPI and GDP contracts when the event-data integration goes live.
Daily volatility brief
One email every market morning: regime read, IV movers, catalyst calendar. Free, unsubscribe anytime.
Get event-market research in your inbox
Pre-print briefs and probability worksheets. Unsubscribe any time.
Related reading & tools
Event contracts are binary: a losing contract loses 100% of the amount paid, and fees materially reduce expected value. Settlement rules and data-source definitions can differ from your intuition about the event. Read the event contracts risk disclosure before acting on any output.
GiottoO provides educational market research, probability analysis, and risk tools based on public, licensed, or user-authorized data. GiottoO is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, commodity trading adviser, or financial adviser. Nothing on this platform is financial advice or a guarantee of performance. Trading and investing involve risk.